• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1743

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 17:33:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141732
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141732=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-141900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1743
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast LA and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141732Z - 141900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of supercells and an isolated
    tornado will persist through the afternoon, but a watch does not
    appear necessary at this time.

    DISCUSSION...On the far eastern fringes of weakening Tropical Storm
    Nicholas, there has been a recent uptick in supercell structures
    within a broken southeast-northwest oriented band. This convection
    is just east of the more persistent clouds/rain that are reducing
    buoyancy, and close to the east edge of the somewhat stronger
    flow/hodograph curvature noted in the LIX VWP. The environment is
    sufficient for occasional rotating storms in the eastern convective
    bands of Nicolas, though the threat for more than an isolated/brief
    tornado is still in question given only slow expected changes to the environment. Thus, this area will continue to be monitored, but a
    tornado watch does not appear necessary at this time.

    ..Thompson.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vsFx7KRc40oQq2GtzgePTE5oiQo7tV18IpqJYBChr1eMIerS38tw7Xcnml3ksjlfsirworPr$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...

    LAT...LON 29078937 29708983 30099040 30439046 30649028 30648987
    30328930 29688865 29248860 28998900 29078937=20



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