• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1742

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 05:41:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140541
    SPC MCD 140541=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1742
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

    Areas affected...Upper Coast of TX...far southwest LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 140541Z - 140815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Weak/transient mini supercells are possible overnight near
    the immediate coast of adjacent parts of the TX/LA coast. A
    weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out, but the overall magnitude
    and coverage of the risk will likely preclude a tornado watch
    issuance overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Hurricane Nicholas is near the TX coast with several
    convective bands embedded within a heavy rain shield per radar
    mosaic imagery. KHGX and KLCH 88D VAD show enlarged hodographs
    conditionally supporting mesocyclone development. Surface
    temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to near 80 deg F during
    the past couple of hours near the mouth of the Sabine River and
    dewpoints are currently in the upper 70s. It appears a narrow
    tongue of modest buoyancy has begun to infiltrate the immediate
    coast near the TX/LA border with around 250 J/kg MLCAPE according to
    modified RAP forecast soundings. Given the weak buoyancy/strong SRH
    setup, occasional mini supercell development within the rain shield
    is expected to continue near the TX/LA border for at least the next
    several hours. Accompanying the strongest circulations could be a
    weak/brief tornado. However, the overall expected magnitude of the
    tornado risk and associated coverage, will probably preclude a
    tornado watch issuance. Convective trends will continue to be

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pFq0pea9GlWfBrX_yj3h2ZeP7on_PGxlre3qIrJOKY1Ugk0SYa8YBw9FVeNbx-9iIx-11JwB$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29569439 29889425 30029319 29579222 28609229 28759333
    28739399 29569439=20

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