• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1741

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 02:23:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140223=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-140400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1741
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0923 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

    Areas affected...Far eastern Nebraska into western and north-central
    Iowa.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 140223Z - 140400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm may occur with a threat
    of large hail and damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed in far eastern
    Nebraska and western Iowa. However, so far, these storms have been
    quite weak. The 00Z KOAX RAOB can provide a likely explanation.
    MUCAPE is over 3000 J/kg, driven by a capped surface parcel.
    However, based on the moisture profile, these storms are likely
    forming in the moist layer just below 500mb. From this layer, CAPE
    is quite low and thus, likely explains the weak nature of the
    convection despite plan-view SPC mesoanalysis plots which show over
    2000 J/kg MUCAPE in the region. RAP forecast soundings show
    continued moistening below this layer which may gradually increase
    the depth of the instability and support more robust updraft
    development. Additionally, any storms rooted above 800mb will likely
    have minimal effective shear with mostly uniform southwesterly flow
    between 45 and 55 knots per RAP forecast soundings overnight. Given
    the multiple factors against sustained strong updraft development, a
    watch is unlikely, but convective trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    ..Bentley/Edwards.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pq7CqRLhMRmvnTyzzIASzrSSb8AVTarn6ouG56k57oRtPKQSJfSKqoZR6xLtvj4R607uNqev$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42139704 42819545 43299427 43149291 42719251 41539356
    41329550 41369637 41619685 42139704=20



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