• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1740

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 00:23:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140023=20
    TXZ000-140230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1740
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0723 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the middle Texas coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 140023Z - 140230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercell structures capable of producing tornadoes may
    approach a small portion of middle Texas coastal areas east of
    Palacios for a period this evening, but the risk for tornadoes
    across and inland of mid and upper Texas coastal areas appears
    rather low through tonight.

    DISCUSSION...As Tropical Storm Nicholas slowly approaches the
    Matagorda Bay vicinity, numerous cells with embedded mesocyclones
    have been evident offshore, within a broad area of convection and
    bands north-northeast through east of the circulation center. This
    is within the sector of strongest southerly to south-southeasterly
    low-level flow, which is contributing to large clockwise curved
    low-level hodographs, and has supported the advection of mid/upper
    70s surface dew points in at least a narrow corridor as far
    northwest as the Brazos 451 Oil Platform.=20=20

    There appears at least some potential that this environment could
    advect into immediate coastal areas east of Palacios during the next
    few hours, with a window of opportunity for a supercell structure
    capable of producing a tornado or two. Otherwise, it appears that environmental conditions supportive of tornadoes will generally
    remain offshore through the overnight hours. Latest forecast
    soundings for upper Texas coastal areas, suggest that relatively
    stable boundary-layer conditions will be maintained through
    daybreak.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vDwux43NouOQoMhYA0Vk3O4kHAO1kHsNEVAvcDgQOTLwGipDD-xZzxkVvXeAdULNwuHk8698$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...

    LAT...LON 28779586 28869559 28939531 28859508 28359400 27839420
    27579477 28269511 28599595 28779586=20



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