• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1738

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 13 20:11:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132011=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-132215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1738
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0311 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

    Areas affected...western New York/northwestern Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132011Z - 132215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms crossing Lake Erie may pose risk for
    locally strong/gusty winds. While severe risk appears limited, and
    thus WW not anticipated in the near term, we will continue to
    monitor environmental/convective evolution.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms that continues moving east-southeastward, now crossing
    Lake Erie. The storms have remained just north of the surface
    front, slightly elevated atop a stable boundary layer. However, as
    the storms continue east-southeastward and move off the lake into
    adjacent NY/PA, a more moist boundary layer suggests less stability
    -- and perhaps risk that stronger gusts may occur locally. While
    potential for gusts in excess of 50 kt appears to remain low, and
    thus need for a watch likely not required in the short term, we will
    monitor for any changes in the environment, or in the character of
    the convection, which might hint at greater wind risk, and
    possible/associated need for WW consideration.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 09/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!quks8Nq-_1y1SyDuhf8kfGod36mIuV4QgvoF-APtSJSZ6TShRvhqWujeIvZA4T4Kp1FwyOpJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 42568025 42387823 41987712 41197766 41517953 42028107
    42278132 42568025=20



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