• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1737

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 13 14:52:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131452
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131452=20
    MIZ000-131615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1737
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0952 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

    Areas affected...portions of west-central and southwestern Lower
    Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 131452Z - 131615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Gusty winds -- possibly nearing severe levels locally --
    will move onshore over the next half hour, across Muskegon and
    Ottawa Counties. However, storms should remain elevated/north of
    the front, which will limit any severe risk.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving across southern Lake
    Michigan has organized a bit over the past half hour -- aided by
    fairly steep lapse rates aloft and strong mid-level westerlies --
    with hints of bowing as a favored zone of updraft redevelopment is
    indicated along leading outflow. This suggests to at least some
    degree that downdrafts are penetrating the stable boundary layer
    north of the cold front over southern Lower Michigan/southern Lake
    Michigan.=20

    This convection will move onshore over the next half hour or so,
    with gusty winds expected. However, given the aforementioned stable
    layer, gusts should remain largely -- if not entirely -- below
    severe levels -- likely in the 40 to 50 MPH range. As such, WW is
    not currently anticipated, but we will continue to monitor
    convective evolution as storms approach/reach coastal counties.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 09/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ovZV-h9Wt5kvmZ494lp7X4vZffKjnRd9ymtdRSxmlV6LO7wNCHLs6pmzaSfrR8jDwBkSvGHI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRR...

    LAT...LON 43448678 43468586 43288449 42698467 42478538 42628709
    42668750 43448678=20



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