• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1736

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 13 04:27:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130427
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130426=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-130600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1736
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1126 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of western/southern New York State and
    adjacent northern Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

    Valid 130426Z - 130600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Occasional strong surface gusts (capable of producing
    mainly tree damage) may continue to accompany an organized, but
    weakening cluster of storms across the southern tier of New York
    into the Catskills vicinity through 2-3 AM EDT. It is not clear
    that another watch is needed, but trends will continue to be
    monitored for this possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Strongest recorded surface gusts with the long-lived
    organized convective system have been around 40-45 kt, from near the
    London, ON vicinity into the eastern shores of Lake Erie, around
    Dunkirk, NY. However, fairly intense peak lightning flash rates
    have begun to decrease substantially and the convective system
    appears to be in the process of weakening. Still, an organized
    structure remains, and activity is rapidly propagating eastward (in
    excess of 50 kt), within a strong, convectively augmented westerly
    mean wind field. At its current pace, it may reach the westerly
    slopes of the Catskills by around 07Z. Even though convection
    probably will continue to weaken, stronger ambient westerly
    low-level wind fields (including 30-40 kt around 850 mb) across the
    southern tier of New York may continue to contribute to potential
    for occasional strong surface gusts which could approach severe
    limits.

    ..Kerr.. 09/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oLWMS2WhJ2Vn_P6E_p2_Yn-owWkuhLjJ5ti9eZXna1Uuo-_u4Skd0qCJfVIV7Hj8kf1uSMbM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 42867801 42897633 42787520 42317444 41777521 41847626
    41887810 41837873 42237829 42867801=20



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