• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1735

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 13 01:15:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130115
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130114=20
    NYZ000-MIZ000-130245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1735
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0814 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern lower Michigan through parts
    of northern Lake Erie and western New York State

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494...

    Valid 130114Z - 130245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An organized cluster of storms may continue to rapidly
    move across southeastern Ontario, across parts of eastern Lake Erie
    into the Buffalo vicinity by Midnight EDT. It remains unclear
    whether this will be accompanied by an appreciable risk for damaging
    wind gusts, but trends will continue to be monitored for the
    possibility of an additional severe weather watch downstream of WW
    494.

    DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of storms is generally maintaining considerable strength, east and southeast of a cyclonic mid-level
    vorticity maxima. Forward propagation has been rapid, in excess of
    50 kt, aided by strong cloud-bearing layer mean flow. However,
    convection is generally rooted above moist low-levels with weak to
    stable lapse rates and modest to weak ambient flow. This has
    inhibited, or at least considerably limited, strong surface gusts
    from reaching the surface, and may continue to do so as the cluster
    progresses across southeastern Ontario during the next couple of
    hours. Based on its current motion, along the northern periphery of
    the plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great
    Plains (roughly coinciding with the 700 mb thermal gradient), it may
    reach the Buffalo vicinity by 04Z. It is possible that downward
    transfer of somewhat stronger low-level wind fields across eastern
    Lake Erie into western New York State could contribute to some
    increase in surface gusts with the convection. However, it appears
    that storm inflow will gradually become more stable with eastward
    progression, and convection may tend to weaken, reducing this risk.

    ..Kerr.. 09/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sXoPSPvzjK2SXWO5OzxN861_-dEVVlsKtycP3lj_xk4iGDsvAZ0WI7AXgynV2T0BwRGv9Ul6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...DTX...

    LAT...LON 43348161 43368051 43207894 42777856 42397988 42388216
    42638262 43258223 43348161=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 13 01:22:52 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 130122
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130122 COR
    NYZ000-MIZ000-130245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1735
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0822 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern lower Michigan through parts
    of northern Lake Erie and western New York State

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494...

    Valid 130122Z - 130245Z

    CORRECTED SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An organized cluster of storms may continue to rapidly
    move across southwestern Ontario and parts of eastern Lake Erie into
    the Buffalo vicinity by Midnight EDT. It remains unclear whether
    this will be accompanied by an appreciable risk for damaging wind
    gusts, but trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility
    of an additional severe weather watch downstream of WW 494.

    DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of storms is generally maintaining considerable strength, east and southeast of a cyclonic mid-level
    vorticity maxima. Forward propagation has been rapid, in excess of
    50 kt, aided by strong cloud-bearing layer mean flow. However,
    convection is generally rooted above moist low-levels with weakly
    unstable to stable lapse rates and modest to weak ambient flow.=20
    This has inhibited, or at least considerably limited, strong surface
    gusts from reaching the surface, and may continue to do so as the
    cluster progresses across southwestern Ontario during the next
    couple of hours. Based on its current motion, along the northern
    periphery of the plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from
    the Great Plains (roughly coinciding with the 700 mb thermal
    gradient), it may reach the Buffalo vicinity by 04Z. It is possible
    that downward transfer of somewhat stronger low-level wind fields
    across eastern Lake Erie into western New York State could
    contribute to some increase in surface gusts with the convection.=20
    However, it appears that storm inflow will gradually become more
    stable with eastward progression, and convection may tend to weaken,
    reducing this risk.

    ..Kerr.. 09/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ptA-ljx5hHkTL_TWFqwIhAhTVsg4nIdmqSAF3qTUZOJC0t0dWj0kUI3Uj2v97-yLskgslxl2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...DTX...

    LAT...LON 43348161 43368051 43207894 42777856 42397988 42388216
    42638262 43258223 43348161=20



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