• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1733

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 12 22:59:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122259
    SPC MCD 122259=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1733
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0559 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

    Areas affected...far northern Utah...southeast Idaho...and western

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 122259Z - 130030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and severe wind threat is expected
    through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...An area of instability has developed ahead of a dryline
    which is currently moving across southeast Idaho and northern Utah.
    SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg with some low
    50s dewpoints in this region. A couple supercells have developed
    along this dryline as it moves southeast. Effective shear is
    increasing as mid-level flow strengthens from the Southwest ahead of
    the mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest. While
    the threat should remain in a confined area, isolated large hail and
    severe winds are possible with these storms as they move eastward
    through the evening.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o-YAckWjcOS9yJ7O7Ual_DcBIDHPet1xjNbta0haB4V-mP4zXXCGGG0PERqkFfKDhcF_DJIN$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41971333 42821187 42991095 42861034 42621002 42031021
    41241149 41291281 41501342 41971333=20

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