Mesoscale Discussion 1731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado...far western
Kansas...and far southwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 122144Z - 122315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...There will be an isolated threat of severe wind gusts into
the evening across portions of the central High Plains.
DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the Colorado Front Range in
an area of weak upslope flow. Moisture is somewhat limited with
surface dewpoints in the 40s, but temperatures have warmed into the
upper 80s to low 90s which has generated sufficient instability for
occasional strong updrafts with some organization given around 35
knots of effective shear per KFTG VWP. Given the hot boundary layer
and steep lapse rates, severe wind gusts will be possible with any
of this activity. The best chance for these stronger gusts will
likely be farther away from the terrain where dewpoints are in the
low 50s which yields slightly higher instability around 500 J/kg.
Any threat is expected to remain isolated, therefore, no severe
thunderstorm watch is anticipated.
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