• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1731

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 12 21:44:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122144
    SPC MCD 122144=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1731
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0444 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado...far western
    Kansas...and far southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 122144Z - 122315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...There will be an isolated threat of severe wind gusts into
    the evening across portions of the central High Plains.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the Colorado Front Range in
    an area of weak upslope flow. Moisture is somewhat limited with
    surface dewpoints in the 40s, but temperatures have warmed into the
    upper 80s to low 90s which has generated sufficient instability for
    occasional strong updrafts with some organization given around 35
    knots of effective shear per KFTG VWP. Given the hot boundary layer
    and steep lapse rates, severe wind gusts will be possible with any
    of this activity. The best chance for these stronger gusts will
    likely be farther away from the terrain where dewpoints are in the
    low 50s which yields slightly higher instability around 500 J/kg.
    Any threat is expected to remain isolated, therefore, no severe
    thunderstorm watch is anticipated.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r7jsJ8Sw_JNLOQTWaO2ydqa6tL28ZDo8toIEn0XFtvMsLnJYDOTj6IscKRjDGZeP3VQJof5I$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39660409 40190352 40570230 40190174 38770163 37540190
    37450295 37860367 39660409=20

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