• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1730

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 12 20:44:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122044=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-122215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1730
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Wisconsin...southwest Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 122044Z - 122215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in southeast Wisconsin may maintain
    structure and intensify as it enters southwest Lower Michigan. A
    watch is uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently developed
    very near the MCV in central Wisconsin. KMKX Radar imagery shows a lake-enhanced frontal boundary pushing as far southeast as
    Jefferson/Walworth Counties. Storms are likely currently elevated
    and could pose a threat for marginally severe hail. The main
    question is what will occur as these storms cross Lake Michigan. The
    front in Lower Michigan is situated farther north with KGRR radar
    showing a fine line structure from Muskegon to north of Grand
    Rapids. Given the continued heating downstream and greater forcing
    along with the MCV, there is some potential that this activity could
    increase in intensity after reaching the southwestern Lower Michigan
    shoreline. A watch is not currently likely in Wisconsin, but trends
    will be monitored for a possible watch in southwestern Michigan
    later.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pBMk43tVJEyGnp2STiN8BpiJkXCJ3cgm1bsxCT92o68Gy3pDEbi_rxAOmqwSvgfUzhv3iUBV$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRR...MKX...

    LAT...LON 43338902 43568665 43408569 43148518 42658549 42548677
    42608838 42778893 43038910 43338902=20



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