• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1729

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 12 18:44:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121844
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121843=20
    MIZ000-122015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1729
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0143 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

    Areas affected...Central Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121843Z - 122015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated storms over Lake Michigan will pose a very
    limited severe risk in the short-term. However, this activity could
    become near surface based this afternoon. A watch will be considered
    as convective trends warrant.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have initiated well ahead of an
    MCV currently moving across northeastern Iowa into western
    Wisconsin. In the short-term, it would appear that the severe threat
    with these storms will be low on account of stout MLCIN. Morning
    observed regional soundings indicated a layer of mid-level
    subsidence. Greater boundary-layer destabilization and/or lift from
    the MCV will likely be needed for storms to become near surface
    based. However, given how early these storms have developed, there
    is some possibility that they pose a severe threat (primarily
    damaging wind gusts) before exiting central Lower Michigan later in
    the afternoon. Trends will need to be monitored for a possible
    watch.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vBhbC-3hWmRMf0pmXbsvm-bgxrCCGmvo_ZV4u6-eggbbn9eyNyMtqjzzBR-7gmsPFJBEliw-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 43418709 43778748 44388731 44438485 44228324 43738260
    43048280 42918416 43118571 43418709=20



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