• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1727

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 11 22:23:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112223=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-120030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1727
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of far eastern Wyoming...northeastern
    Colorado into parts of western and central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112223Z - 120030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms may produce localized strong
    downbursts through 7-9 PM CDT, but the evolution of an organized
    severe wind threat currently appears low.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is initiating
    along and east of the Colorado Front Range and Laramie Mountains
    vicinity. This appears aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent
    associated with one low amplitude impulse now crossing the higher
    terrain, and forecast to progress into the adjacent high plains
    through this evening.

    The boundary layer has become hot and deeply mixed across the high
    plains, with sufficient moisture in the presence of steep lapse
    rates to support weak CAPE. Boundary-layer dew points and
    mixed-layer CAPE gradually increase with eastward extent across the
    high plains, and this could allow for slow further intensification
    of high-based storms through early evening. Deep-layer shear is
    strong, and westerly mean ambient flow within the convective layer
    appears on the order of 30 kt, which may contribute to increasing
    potential for locally severe down bursts in stronger storms, before
    convection begins to wane after dark.

    Due to weak low-level forcing for ascent, the potential for
    substantive upscale growth currently appears low. This appears to
    limit the risk for a broader, more organized severe wind threat.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 09/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q_ufXuXlZh_Mzi_iIv9tkZ1yN1Zw1cdK-SPDmr4FH_niXMCpRV4eZ1fEkjsYcEFVxhSSxLOI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42740420 42840244 42230112 41240109 40700407 41730418
    42740420=20



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