• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1726

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 11 22:20:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112220
    SPC MCD 112219=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1726
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0519 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021

    Areas affected...far eastern Nevada and portions of western Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112219Z - 112345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the
    afternoon and evening.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed in eastern Nevada.
    These storms are currently not particularly strong, but the airmass
    downstream is unstable with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg per SPC
    mesoanalysis. The sub-cloud layer is well-mixed and therefore,
    sufficient evaporative cooling may occur for severe wind gusts in
    the stronger downdrafts. SPC mesoanalysis also shows this region to
    be favorable for downbursts with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However,
    the airmass is not nearly as warm as yesterday where DCAPE was at or
    above 1500 and severe wind gusts were more numerous. Therefore, an
    isolated severe wind gust or two is possible this afternoon/evening,
    but a more widespread threat is not anticipated.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qEDgumDVDlO_5NH_yBVeTJZDrFC3GemU-7Q3XzBe09i_z6rcOZcFQgRN20NRWaxOulK0Yfzd$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40691438 41571373 41931314 41921274 41721234 41311201
    40821190 40031217 39441269 38781341 38771397 39971436

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