• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1725

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 10 19:34:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101934
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101934=20
    ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-102130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1725
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021

    Areas affected...South-central and southeastern Oregon

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101934Z - 102130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms are expected to develop in the higher terrain
    of northern California into central Oregon. Cold temperatures aloft
    will support isolated large hail. A damaging wind gust is also
    possible with the most intense storms. A watch is not likely this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are continuing to deepen within the
    Klamath Mountains underneath the upper trough. Though surface
    temperatures are relatively cool in the wake of this morning's
    stratiform precipitation, mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km are
    supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Continued surface heating in
    south-central Oregon may support some increase in buoyancy this
    afternoon. Greater deep-layer shear lies to the southeast of these
    storms within the mid-level jet. However, 25-35 kts of shear may
    promote a marginal supercell or two. Isolated hail will likely be
    the main threat. Lack of steeper low-level lapse rates should keep
    the wind gusts threat lower. Due to remaining cloud cover to the
    north and east, the spatial extent of the severe threat will be
    limited to where sufficient destabilization can occur. A watch is
    not likely this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!peoC_g5SaH3RxE8rwjnQyCuOW55JqoAB_iVGDSYQlUw771zOp0TL3Af7eFDt9HGRI3HQtjRo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...REV...MFR...

    LAT...LON 41862106 41852186 42232191 43322141 43922093 44002085
    44222041 43911942 43241881 42631858 42101874 41991972
    41862106=20



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