• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1723

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 9 21:44:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092144
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092144=20
    CAZ000-092345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1723
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0444 PM CDT Thu Sep 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southern California

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092144Z - 092345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection across interior
    southern CA into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests a weak mid-level
    short-wave trough is located near coastal southern CA, lifting
    slowly north around the western periphery of the southwestern US
    ridge. This feature appears to be partly responsible for drawing
    higher-PW values across the lower CO River valley into southern
    interior CA. Strong boundary-layer heating has effectively removed
    what inhibition was noted across this region and deep convection is
    now evolving within an air mass characterized by up to 1000 J/kg
    MLCAPE with cloud bases just above 3km AGL. With PW values near 1.3
    inches, local downbursts appear possible given the steep low-level
    lapse rates. Isolated strong storms should continue to develop over
    the higher terrain and drift north-northwest, aided in part by the
    coastal short wave. Strongest convection should remain well
    interior.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 09/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tvBIeEaz5E0AU7eDIG3K9q-BoqwRSCju_aBJciS6KE8aCjauVGMZkDTyDJcIFN5waam4vdcm$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...

    LAT...LON 33781603 34451722 35311874 36061861 35941720 34461490
    33781603=20



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