• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1722

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 9 08:13:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090813
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090812=20
    MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-091045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1722
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0312 AM CDT Thu Sep 09 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern CT...RI...central/eastern
    MA...and southern NH

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090812Z - 091045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and
    perhaps a brief tornado may continue through the early morning.
    Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has recently strengthened
    over central/eastern CT ahead of a cold front. The thermodynamic
    environment across southern New England may be marginally suitable
    for surface-based storms, with low to mid 70s surface temperatures
    and mid to upper 60s dewpoints supporting around 250-500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE. About 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear is present across this
    region in association with an upper trough extending across much of
    the eastern CONUS. Multicells and marginal supercells may occur as
    storms move eastward early this morning. Enhanced southwesterly
    low-level winds attendant to a low-level jet appear to be fairly
    well sampled by the KBOX VWP, and strong to locally damaging winds
    may occur. Given current storm motion, around 100-150 m2/s2 of
    0-1-km SRH is present, which could support occasional low-level
    rotation and perhaps a brief tornado. Current expectations are for
    the stronger winds associated with the low-level jet to gradually
    shift northeastward and away from the better low-level moisture
    across southern New England over the next few hours. Accordingly,
    the overall severe threat should remain too isolated/marginal to
    justify watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 09/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ug7-YC9_3eQYSlSveoMfVptub0-L3do0U6gRPH0K-e7W2IMOmLm5_NVKNiTpU7TPfDRJPmq5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

    LAT...LON 41247253 42127232 43147156 43217109 42967059 42777070
    42637051 42427076 42087056 41807049 41487102 41257198
    41247253=20



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