• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1720

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 9 02:38:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090237=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-090500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1720
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0937 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

    Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle into extreme
    southern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090237Z - 090500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado may accompany any stronger, sustained
    storm that manages to form. However, the severe threat is expected
    to be quite brief and localized, and a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Mindy has recently made landfall along
    the FL panhandle coastline, with convective bands continuing to
    pivot around the center within the northeast quadrant of the
    cyclone. While a brief uptick in convective intensity was noted
    earlier (including the possibility of a tornado in Wakulla County,
    FL nearly 90 minutes ago), convection within the bands has more
    recently waned in intensity. 02Z mesoanalysis shows up to 40 kts of
    effective bulk shear within the northeast quadrant of Mindy, with
    the TLH 0154Z VWP showing over 200 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH. However, the
    TLH 00Z observed sounding depicted a meager buoyancy profile, with
    under 900 J/kg SBCAPE and very little MLCAPE (given a relatively dry surface-850 mb layer for a tropical cyclone ambient environment).

    Given the aforementioned vertical shear profile, a robust, sustained
    low-topped supercell would be capable of producing a tornado.
    However, the overall severe threat is expected to be very sparse and
    brief given the meager buoyancy, and a Tornado Watch issuance is not
    currently anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 09/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qUVrFG50lSqzI0cWxn0IkaMDta10wv-6TCre7TXRds2KBQiGxUF-Hr9giePaEbgxs5kL5VIM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29708454 30068476 30418483 30738460 30948425 31038373
    30918331 30698302 30518291 30268293 29938295 29578312
    29418343 29708454=20



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