• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1718

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 9 00:18:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090017=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-090215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1718
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0717 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090017Z - 090215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be ruled out with
    one of the stronger, more discrete storms. A WW issuance is not
    anticipated given the brief, isolated nature of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...The center of Tropical Storm Mindy continues to
    approach the Florida Panhandle shoreline and is expected to make
    landfall within a few hours. However, despite the recent
    strengthening of the tropical cyclone, overall vertical shear
    profiles still appear relatively mediocre, with 23Z mesoanalysis
    depicting only 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear, with the TLH VWP
    recently showing 170 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH (with 90 m2/s2 contained
    within the 0-1 km layer). Combined with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (and
    100-150 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE), a brief tornado or damaging gust may
    occur with any robust updraft that can become established and
    sustain itself. At the moment, the latest high-resolution guidance
    suggests that overall coverage of robust updrafts should be quite
    sparse, precluding the need for a watch at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 09/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qeAhQ_GcxV5GKowM6AvDFelK_pgvugOn6YnkkvIoKuhMNcrjVBuJT2PuQsn4iQ1oXs1uAGDa$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29648443 29698476 29848507 30038530 30268546 30368556
    30548548 30738525 30868489 30958461 30958426 30838391
    30498379 30138377 30098385 29888404 29648443=20



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