• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1717

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 8 22:31:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082231
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082230=20
    VTZ000-NYZ000-090000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1717
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Hudson Valley to VT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082230Z - 090000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few wind gusts are possible with a squall line this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be
    aiding upscale linear growth in thunderstorms this evening. Squall
    line has matured and currently extends from northwest VT-northern
    Hudson Valley-northeast PA. Northern extent of this squall line is
    advancing across an instability axis less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE,
    with surface-3km lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. Given the
    observed shear, organized updrafts are expected along this corridor
    but weaker buoyancy across New England should limit future
    intensification. At this time it appears gusty winds may be common
    but organized severe wind gusts are not currently anticipated. A
    severe thunderstorm watch is not currently warranted due to the
    marginal thermodynamic environment, but a watch is still possible
    farther southwest of this region.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 09/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uRUBx3RWdl4qrWfJdmbXGwsFK-odq0uLLllxRlzvbcnuVqvinLNUiN_9OvaQ-_UtgIaLBVXH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...

    LAT...LON 43027394 44987250 44707199 42947294 43027394=20



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