• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1716

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 8 20:52:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082052
    SPC MCD 082051=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1716
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Hill Country

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082051Z - 082245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong-severe downburst winds will be possible
    late this afternoon/evening, but a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...South of a diffuse surface cold front and west of a
    subtle trough/moisture gradient, deep mixing and hot surface
    temperatures well into the 90s are contributing to moderate buoyancy
    and steep low-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development appears
    probable in the next 1-2 hours in the area of deep mixing, on the
    western tail of a weak/remnant MCV from prior convection. Though
    wind profiles will remain weak, a few high-based storms will have
    the potential to produce strong-severe outflow winds of 50-60 mph
    for a few hours late this afternoon/evening with a loosely organized
    cluster of storms that will spread southwestward.

    ..Thompson/Hart.. 09/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rLdURH4pF_1AAFEIEFSY9XYHulb4hGIQRp0CCjkcq4ljyZuc9R00Kkj1AOtHyuzy2AGTtioV$=
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    LAT...LON 31039844 30649840 30249856 29939890 29879939 30029995
    30340042 30710056 31270048 31550009 31549968 31389905

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