• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1715

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 8 20:16:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082016
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082015=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-082215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1715
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...northwest New
    Jersey...southeastern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 082015Z - 082215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather will gradually increase into
    early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts
    and isolated large hail are the main concerns. A conditional tornado
    threat exists in eastern Pennsylvania and southeastern New York.
    Timing and coverage of severe storms is uncertain. Trends will be
    monitored for a possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...The 18Z observed Albany sounding showed relatively weak
    capping, but signs of subsidence aloft. This general profile seems
    to capture what is being observed on visible satellite across the
    Mid-Atlantic. Areas of cumulus, particularly within eastern
    Pennsylvania where temperatures are in the mid 80s F, have shown a
    gradual increase in depth. The subsidence aloft is likely limiting
    vertical development. With time, and additional mid-level cooling,
    storms should be able to initiate in the warm sector. Farther west,
    warm conveyor belt precipitation has generally been weak with only
    small embedded convective elements. A gradual increase in convective
    character may occur as this activity encounters more buoyant air.

    The greatest severe potential likely exists with any warm sector
    storms that can develop. Damaging winds, isolated large hail, and
    perhaps a tornado could occur. Eastern Pennsylvania into
    southeastern New York would be the favored zone for low-level
    rotation given slightly backed surface winds. Storms within the warm
    conveyor belt should exhibit a more linear storm mode and pose
    primarily a damaging wind gust risk.

    There is some uncertainty as to when storms will intensify this
    afternoon. Much of the guidance suggest it may not be until around=20
    or after 8 PM EDT. With potentially unfavorable timing diurnally,
    trends will have to continue to be monitored for a possible watch
    later this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r2oYhTgAqrOMIfrEcTZLK8rdV7RZ56nGhplUJUEZeuMNuxfxiY_o9YWQ74PV01EUX6qhYwWe$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39887582 39527639 39527675 39657708 39877720 40147709
    40387698 40697677 40887660 40987650 41707602 42567512
    42937433 42527370 41857365 40957458 39887582=20



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