• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1714

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 8 19:13:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081913=20
    FLZ000-082045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1714
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0213 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

    Areas affected...The Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 081913Z - 082045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado may occur this afternoon, but the threat
    is expected to remain too marginal for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf of
    Mexico has shown some signs of tropical cyclone formation, but the
    overall structure of the system is still a bit disorganized.=20
    Likewise, only modest increases in flow/shear have been observed
    over land, with a small, looping hodograph noted in the VWP data
    from TLH. The modest increase in vertical shear has been sufficient
    for some weak supercell structures now approaching Franklin Co. FL.=20
    A brief tornado may occur as a supercell or two moves across the
    coast, but the overall tornado threat is expected to remain marginal
    and not extend more than a county inland. Thus, a tornado watch
    does not appear necessary at this time.

    ..Thompson/Hart.. 09/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q71iQgYPJ3LA1mX0bpNcgOp9qcw5BCPKixs3VvxKQgZz0BmPIvw7oWpmiXBrzzHGfvpt-hvf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30128505 30438472 30438426 30298401 29988385 29798425
    29548482 29828514 30128505=20



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