• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1713

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 8 17:16:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081716
    SPC MCD 081716=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1713
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast VA and northeast NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 081716Z - 081845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail near 1 inch diameter will be
    possible this afternoon from southeast Virginia into northeast North
    Carolina, but a watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A remnant MCV is moving east-northeastward near the
    NC/VA border as of 17z. Temperatures have warmed into the mid-upper
    80s with dewpoints in the low 70s ahead of the MCV, which is
    contributing to MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Downdraft potential
    appears to be greater into southeast VA as evidenced by DCAPE over
    1000 J/kg, while there is a narrow zone of somewhat enhanced
    midlevel flow and vertical shear farther south into north
    central/northeast NC on the eastern periphery of the MCV. Isolated
    wind damage will be possible across southeast VA with storm clusters
    preceding the MCV, and there will be some potential for marginal
    supercells in the zone of 30+ kt effective bulk shear across
    northeast NC. The overall severe threat is expected to remain
    rather marginal/isolated, and a watch is not anticipated.

    ..Thompson/Hart.. 09/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o8Lh6HzJTwUu3OYoG5bmNjBW_32KIdIbIhw9N0J9-J-9Ewx1xtpLhrF7a4If4VJ2zg7LkVDn$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36647594 36227604 35927633 35567682 35457731 35657766
    35917775 36387754 36897759 37117786 37527797 37907776
    38067708 37857622 36647594=20

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