• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1712

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 8 08:41:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080840=20
    NYZ000-081115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1712
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 AM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western NY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080840Z - 081115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind threat may exist with storms
    moving eastward early this morning. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A broken, low-topped line of storms should continue to
    move east-northeastward from southern Ontario and Lake Erie across
    parts of western NY over the next few hours. Strong low/mid-level
    flow preceding an upper trough is present over this region, with
    recent VWPs from KBUF showing southwesterly winds rapidly
    strengthening to around 50 kt only 1 km AGL. Latest surface
    observations along/near the shore of Lake Erie have shown an
    increase in temperatures into the low to mid 70s, with low 60s
    surface dewpoints also present. Modifying a RAP forecast sounding
    for current conditions at KBUF suggests a narrow, skinny CAPE
    profile exists in the boundary layer. Given the strength of the
    low-level flow and the presence of weak MLCAPE, there may be some
    potential for isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds associated with
    the broken line to reach the surface. Even so, this wind threat is
    expected to remain quite isolated through the early morning hours,
    and watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 09/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tz8n-UgPJGpjJkMUS5GmM35WurmKZjj5YdIxr-A3R8crfDiLvuKgVx2pKKJQ42vzoIRY22uz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42357938 42417952 42597924 42827901 43227913 43367893
    43437831 43207827 42827844 42477899 42357938=20



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