• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1708

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 7 20:43:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072042=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-072315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1708
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northern OK/southeastern KS and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072042Z - 072315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected
    along and just ahead of a cold front, with the potential for
    isolated 50-65 mph gusts and hail near 1 inch diameter, beginning
    22-00z and persisting through about 02-03z.

    DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating/mixing along and just ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front is weakening convective inhibition
    and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg from northern OK into
    southeastern KS and vicinity. Some cumulus development is noted
    near the front in east central KS and near the TX/northwest OK
    border, and storm development will become more probable by 22z as
    these trends continue. The moderate-strong buoyancy and modest
    deep-layer northerly shear will favor a few semi-organized
    cells/small clusters with isolated large hail near 1" diameter.=20
    Steepening low-level lapse rates and DCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg
    will be favorable for isolated downburst winds of 50-65 mph for a
    few hours late this afternoon into late evening.

    ..Thompson/Hart.. 09/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sonlJFKrHCM7R5Mo9rMeWyk0kB0J_FYDlZJ87-EC4SCPOAhwXb3SanN5n0U_cSwMIHM6c_ca$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35799851 35549998 35660055 35990054 36170016 36989778
    37679623 38519453 38489422 38189412 37459464 36509655
    35799851=20



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