• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1706

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 7 19:10:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071910
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071909=20
    NMZ000-TXZ000-072145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1706
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

    Areas affected...Southern NM and far West TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071909Z - 072145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated 50-65 mph outflow gusts will be possible from
    about 20-00z as storms form over the mountains and move
    southwestward, but a watch appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus are deepening over the Sacramento Mountains as
    of 19z, and water vapor imagery shows a subtle midlevel perturbation
    moving west-southwestward over southeast NM. Boundary-layer
    dewpoints in the low 50s and surface temperatures warming into the
    low 90s F are resulting in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and diminishing
    convective inhibition, which suggests that the cumulus are the
    precursor to storm initiation in the next 1-2 hours. Widely
    scattered storms are expected to move west-southwest off the higher
    terrain in response to 30-40 kt northeasterly midlevel flow around
    the periphery of the midlevel high over the Great Basin. Steep
    low-level lapse rates and DCAPE greater than 1500 J/kg will support
    isolated 50-65 mph outflow winds with downbursts, while the moderate
    buoyancy and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt will favor somewhat
    organized cells. Given the expectation for widely spaced storms, a
    watch appears unlikely.

    ..Thompson/Hart.. 09/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sL8WFQbPG0iAn2SEtS1nHXM2DypslWXrRjF1mX_40YVLBTDTdHyVfaYZmN6SBN3mSZkhnsdP$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 32470784 33090622 33140600 33030588 32820587 32640570
    32480537 32380501 32230491 31960494 31660513 31340571
    31400620 31750666 31630803 31350830 31320862 31590870
    32010849 32470784=20



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