Mesoscale Discussion 1705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021
Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 071848Z - 072045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may become necessary in the
next 1-2 hours across southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, though a
conditional threat for a tornado also exists.
DISCUSSION...Surface heating continues across southern Lower
Michigan and adjacent Indiana. With dewpoints mixing out into the
upper 50s F, surface-based destabilization has been muted.
Additional surface heating and cooling aloft as the upper trough
approaches should allow for greater buoyancy to develop,
particularly in the vicinity of the cold front. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are the expected threats. With a zone of stronger
low-level winds across these areas, a conditional tornado threat
will also exist should any discrete cells initiate.
The main uncertainty is the exact evolution of the current
thunderstorm activity from near Chicago into central Lower Michigan.
Some of this activity may move into southern Lower Michigan and
northern Indiana this afternoon. The other possibility is for
additional storms to develop along the cold front, which would
likely mean storms arrive towards late afternoon. Trends will
continue to be monitored for a possible watch in the next 1-2 hours.
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