• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1705

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 7 18:49:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071849
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071848=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-072045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1705
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071848Z - 072045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may become necessary in the
    next 1-2 hours across southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana.
    Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, though a
    conditional threat for a tornado also exists.

    DISCUSSION...Surface heating continues across southern Lower
    Michigan and adjacent Indiana. With dewpoints mixing out into the
    upper 50s F, surface-based destabilization has been muted.
    Additional surface heating and cooling aloft as the upper trough
    approaches should allow for greater buoyancy to develop,
    particularly in the vicinity of the cold front. Damaging wind gusts
    and large hail are the expected threats. With a zone of stronger
    low-level winds across these areas, a conditional tornado threat
    will also exist should any discrete cells initiate.

    The main uncertainty is the exact evolution of the current
    thunderstorm activity from near Chicago into central Lower Michigan.
    Some of this activity may move into southern Lower Michigan and
    northern Indiana this afternoon. The other possibility is for
    additional storms to develop along the cold front, which would
    likely mean storms arrive towards late afternoon. Trends will
    continue to be monitored for a possible watch in the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oa64gRSOxSMgU2FoJ5YIWiniUgRRm1ZM11FbZHQbG_p1BS6m3e4GNbEnlf_olNgXhBgxOv8o$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 41628684 42608551 43288368 43588295 43198245 42258287
    41668420 41088540 40998615 41168673 41628684=20



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