• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1703

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 7 17:26:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071726
    SPC MCD 071725=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1703
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071725Z - 071830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The need for a watch in parts of northern Illinois is
    uncertain. The most probable scenario is that stronger storms will
    develop later this afternoon along the advancing front after
    inhibition weakens further. Trends, however, will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Storm motion with the ongoing convection in southern
    Wisconsin is expected to keep that activity near and perhaps just
    south into Illinois. Weak convection has developed in far northwest
    Illinois along a pre-frontal boundary. So far this new convection
    has struggled. Morning observed soundings from DVN and ILX showed
    low-level dry air that is likely contributing to MLCIN. It seems
    most likely that a few more hours of heating and moistening will be
    needed, along with greater low-level forcing along the front, for
    more substantial development to occur. That being said, model
    guidance has been poor with timing and evolution of convection this
    morning. A watch is not expected in the short term, but trends will
    continue to be monitored in northern Illinois.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ryaP3h6uYpNvdaOxrN3uyBJ0Kgtb9kRROkQxnG2Bens9tFIBJo4pQvdC8_KVoVT7a6q6XSfK$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41309005 41609019 42069018 42278991 42378975 42528922
    42518820 42498775 42528752 42308723 41598728 41558760
    41348945 41309005=20

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