• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1702

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 7 15:48:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071548
    SPC MCD 071547=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1702
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1047 AM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast WI and central Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071547Z - 071645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated storms that have persisted through the morning
    with large hail will gradually become rooted closer to the surface,
    with an increasing threat for damaging winds. A watch may need to
    be considered before 17z.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have produced large hail this morning
    across east central WI, and the convection continues to spread
    eastward over Lake MI and toward Lower MI. Destabilization has been
    observed with surface warming/moistening as a warm front translates northeastward into Lower MI. Modified RAP model and observed 12z
    soundings suggest that convective inhibition will become rather
    small by 16-17z along the cold front in WI and the warm front in
    Lower MI, with the potential for storms to become rooted at the
    surface by midday. Thus, the threat for damaging winds is expected
    to increase as storm coverage increases with diurnal heating and
    continued eastward progress of the amplifying midlevel trough across
    WI, and a watch may become necessary by midday.

    ..Thompson/Hart.. 09/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uHpwsz88n5DExVw2oZSWj8HP36kbLpVnDxclEb6qveWa1NClaQ7UOOsC54Yhk94JFYjltmnv$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43988403 43698466 42548685 42598877 42908899 43358895
    44428601 44428389 44288345 43988403=20

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