• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1701

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 7 14:17:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071416
    SPC MCD 071415=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1701
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0915 AM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

    Areas affected...East central WI into northern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071415Z - 071545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and strong/damaging
    winds will persist through the morning from east central Wisconsin
    into northern Lower Michigan, but a watch may not be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A band of ascent is spreading eastward over WI, in
    advance of a pronounced midlevel trough moving east-southeastward
    from MN. The convection this morning has been elevated atop a
    shallow cool layer near the ground, immediately north/northeast of a
    surface warm front moving northeastward. Per the 12z GRB sounding,
    MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg has supported a few strong updrafts this
    morning, and there will be some potential for storms to persist
    through the morning with an isolated large hail threat. However, it
    will take a few hours for the low levels to destabilize sufficiently
    and far enough northeast for surface-based storms with more of a
    damaging wind threat. At this time, it appears that a watch is
    probably not needed, but the threat for damaging winds will increase
    by midday to early afternoon from extreme southeast WI into
    northeast IL and Lower MI, when a watch will likely be needed. This
    damaging wind threat will be addressed by late morning to midday.

    ..Thompson/Hart.. 09/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pnI82mYdpTlxfLlUnkD3UIff28mojO_1YIQTL33XQx6kILhddqbFMnzam6aNUJgqn21OpHND$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44948361 44248409 43858534 43858649 43938762 43898868
    43858961 44059000 44418958 44658771 44988591 45138396

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