• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1700

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 7 12:06:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071206
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071205=20
    MIZ000-071400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1700
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0705 AM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071205Z - 071400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may continue
    with a small cluster of storms, but watch issuance is unlikely in
    the short term.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms presently moving across northern
    Lake Michigan has persisted early this morning as continued ascent
    associated with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet shifts
    eastward across the Great Lakes. Occasional strong/gusty (but
    sub-severe) winds occurred with this convection earlier this morning
    across parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. These storms are
    outpacing the low-level moisture return and related instability that
    is gradually advancing northeastward, and they will probably remain
    slightly elevated. Still, seasonably warm lake temperatures and
    reduced friction over the lake may support isolated strong to
    perhaps damaging winds as the cluster crosses over the rest of Lake
    Michigan and impacts parts of northern Lower MI over the next couple
    of hours. Any isolated wind threat associated with this convection
    should remain confined fairly close to the coast, as the
    thermodynamic environment across interior portions of northern Lower
    MI quickly becomes very unfavorable. Current expectations are for
    this cluster to weaken as it moves inland, and watch issuance is
    unlikely in the next couple of hours.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 09/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rU-k1Sq1jB8Ew1SlKask3cHSCX2Mep4gRWVexaQGdeUSpFnvgXFEQWvDW0EAUs4izOWThthg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...

    LAT...LON 44578635 45078615 45498583 45678538 45738483 45638442
    45298448 44858472 44538512 44368559 44258630 44578635=20



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