• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1699

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 7 07:40:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070740
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070740=20
    WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-071015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1699
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0240 AM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far eastern MN...northern WI...and the
    western U.P. of MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 070740Z - 071015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for hail and strong/gusty winds may
    exist with storms moving eastward early this morning. Watch issuance
    is unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered storms have recently moved from
    eastern MN into northern WI and the western U.P. of MI early this
    morning. Most of this convection has been occurring to the north of
    a warm front, and likely remains slightly elevated above a
    near-surface stable layer. Still, winds strengthen quickly above the
    surface per recent VWPs from KMPX, and a strong low-level warm
    advection regime will likely support this activity for at least the
    next few hours as it continues eastward. A reservoir of moderate to
    strong MUCAPE should exist ahead of these storms across parts of
    northern WI, and deep-layer shear appears adequate for some updraft organization. Given the mainly linear nature to a cluster of storms
    crossing into the western U.P. of MI from far northern WI, they may
    be capable of producing isolated strong/gusty winds from any
    convective downdrafts that can reach the surface. Farther west along
    the MN/WI border, other more isolated cells that have recently
    developed could produce marginally severe hail with the steep
    mid-level lapse rates present over this area. Regardless, all of
    these storms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated
    given the presence of considerable convective inhibition noted on
    recent mesoanalysis. Therefore, the overall severe threat in the
    short term will likely remain too isolated/marginal for a watch.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 09/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pXYxhwH1KhS4zwLLv5rOqTmIpBFolScnvc42kMltyiLyfsIhc5M2rXrQ6oyQ7Sc-Ho4IyXOW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45519338 45789337 46089264 46349046 46858946 47048903
    47138863 46928828 46188843 45308868 44908954 44929116
    45209244 45519338=20



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