• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1698

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 6 17:41:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061741
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061740=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-061945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1698
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021

    Areas affected...Northern New Hampshire...central/northern Maine

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061740Z - 061945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage across parts of New Hampshire and
    central/northern Maine will increase this afternoon. Isolated
    damaging winds and small hail are possible. Lack of greater
    destabilization will limit coverage of intense storms. No watch is
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Weak convection has continued to occur within a
    pre-frontal trough in central/northern Maine. As the shortwave
    progresses to the northeast this afternoon, some combination of
    deepening convection within the surface trough and along the
    advancing cold front will lead to an increase of thunderstorm
    coverage in northern New England. Cold temperatures aloft,
    particularly with northward extent, should support a few marginally
    intense updrafts capable of isolated damaging wind and small hail.
    Greater surface heating in central and northern Maine increases the
    potential for stronger convective winds to reach the surface.
    Temperatures and dewpoints will be greater in coastal southern
    Maine, but warmer temperatures aloft will limit updraft depth and
    intensity. Weak buoyancy will limit the coverage of intense storms
    enough that no watch is expected this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qlTOeJR5gCW_0V1PdOjtHLhCtblGrEibipOe3blD3brblRdF_30rMZ0jo6Ncl6UDu8Mfpl_T$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

    LAT...LON 43877239 44167250 45127238 45627186 45707174 46167074
    46896987 47286842 46826818 45986834 44906923 44357040
    43997163 43877239=20



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