• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1697

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 6 14:48:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061447
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061447=20
    VTZ000-NYZ000-061645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1697
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0947 AM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021

    Areas affected...Northern New York into Vermont

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061447Z - 061645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Fast moving storms may produce convectively-enhanced
    damaging winds and small hail. No watch is expected.

    DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms was moving around 35-40 kts to
    the north-northeast off of Lake Ontario. A convective gust of 41 kts
    was recorded at KFZY within the last hour. Other New York Mesonet
    sites were showing gusts around 25-30 kts in the same vicinity.
    Despite limited buoyancy and some cloud cover ahead of this activity
    so far, a few of these stronger gusts are possible given the line's
    speed. Continued cooling aloft and modest heating in cloud free
    areas should allow some intensification of the line into the
    afternoon. Based on observed regional and model forecast soundings,
    the most intense storm activity will likely occur where surface
    temperatures can reach the low/mid 70s F. Strong flow in the low
    levels will mean damaging winds will be the primary threat. Small
    hail may also occur given how cold it is aloft. Coverage of severe
    storms should be limited lack of boundary-layer destabilization. No
    watch is expected.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qcfL6HfXU1o2x9_vAoWrVFr2fSFa6wRbStkM6gChCi7sdtUPxBeZl2MUd7cqDTnCxgkaG8LM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 44567571 45027475 45027274 44757202 44217208 43587255
    43197304 43007491 43067607 43447624 44567571=20



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