• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1695

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 5 09:55:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 050955
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050954=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-051230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1695
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0454 AM CDT Sun Sep 05 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest and Central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 050954Z - 051230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated large hail will likely continue across parts
    of southwest and central Nebraska over the next few hours. The hail
    threat should remain marginal and a weather watch will probably not
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from North Platte shows three
    small clusters of thunderstorms over southwest and central Nebraska.
    The western most cluster is located in the center of a pocket of
    moderate instability. The RAP is estimating MUCAPE within this
    pocket in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. However, a sharp temperature
    inversion evident on forecast soundings is keeping this convection
    elevated. Convective development will continue to occur over the
    next few hours in western and central Nebraska as a shortwave trough
    over the central Rockies moves southeastward into the central High
    Plains. Large-scale ascent ahead of the trough along with steep
    mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will be
    favorable for hail with elevated supercells. The threat should
    gradually move southeastward into the south-central Nebraska by
    around daybreak, where a marginal hail threat will exist.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 09/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oyJkEe5H6YXdNvOv_ed9mSADrmFIJf5KzraxBFmZVyH1DlgOZOC7XHH_UT7f42mIFDp7LS1a$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 41870161 41330207 40860223 40640219 40230194 40010115
    40099991 40149969 40429930 41099923 41469976 41960074
    41870161=20



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