• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1694

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 4 20:23:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042023=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1694
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0323 PM CDT Sat Sep 04 2021

    Areas affected...Southwestern Missouri...Northeastern Oklahoma...and
    far Northwestern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042023Z - 042300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
    afternoon along/near a cold front across the area. While isolated
    severe wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms, the
    marginal setup/environment will likely preclude the necessity of a
    watch.

    DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence along the surface boundary should
    be sufficient for initiation of scattered thunderstorms across the
    region this afternoon. Diurnal heating south of this boundary has
    resulted in steep low-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and a moderately
    unstable airmass (~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE). While flow is not
    particularly strong aloft (~30 knots per regional VWPs), the
    effective-layer bulk shear (30-35 knots) should be sufficient to
    support organized updrafts. Perhaps the biggest limiting factor for
    severe potential is the relatively warm air aloft (per warm layers
    noted above 500 mb in the 18Z OUN and LMN soundings), which will
    likely limit updraft strength and longevity. Nevertheless, if
    strong updrafts can be sustained, the environment will be supportive
    of isolated damaging downburst winds from the strongest storms.

    ..Jirak/Bunting.. 09/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tGBXTnWFhY2VPcRPhy2cd1_ZjFANM-ATSoo1XMz61pvfVImScthiAWRQNehTPGw8TpLbCiL5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36259687 36759559 37129451 37199376 36879304 36429327
    36159383 35919460 35739544 35639636 36039686 36259687=20



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