• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1692

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 3 20:59:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032059
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032059=20
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-032230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1692
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0359 PM CDT Fri Sep 03 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast WY...western SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032059Z - 032230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through
    this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
    severe threats. A watch is not currently expected, however trends
    will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows towering cumulus
    across the higher terrain of northeast WY, where strong heating of
    lower to mid 50s surface dew points has resulted in MLCAPE of
    500-locally 750 J/kg. Westerly mid-level flow above low-level
    southerly winds has resulted in a favorable environment for
    supercells, with effective shear averaging 50 kts. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop the remainder of this
    afternoon across northeast WY, posing a risk for large hail and
    strong/possibly damaging gusts. Storms may evolve into a cluster
    with time, although diminishing instability will limit the severe
    risk with eastward extent.

    A watch is not expected given the anticipated isolated coverage,
    however convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Bunting/Grams.. 09/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ugTX8BStP8icdq_c1eSIu7pY52ZNYu6Sb80zlvuntN0t-hKDzmdwoPdan3-GMMVhBKamv4OF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44150603 45100509 45080401 44710326 44330271 43960259
    43320249 43130391 43210530 42970603 43250616 43560618
    44150603=20



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