• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1691

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 3 20:19:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032019
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032018=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-032245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1691
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CDT Fri Sep 03 2021

    Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...Southwestern
    Kansas...and Northwestern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032018Z - 032245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing over the Texas and
    Oklahoma panhandles are drifting north-northeastward. While the
    strongest storms will pose the risk of damaging winds, the lack of
    stronger flow/shear should limit the overall severe weather threat,
    likely precluding the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating south of frontal boundary draped across
    Kansas has resulted in moderate instability (>1500 J/kg of MLCAPE)
    across southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas and
    Oklahoma panhandles. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the
    warm, moist air south of this boundary, where the flow aloft is
    rather weak (~20 knots per AMA VWP). While these storms drift north-northeastward toward the boundary, the effective bulk shear
    increases, especially north of the boundary.=20=20

    Mid-level lapse rates are rather weak across the area, so the
    primary threat will likely be damaging downburst winds from
    precipitation loading effects, given the record to near-record PW
    values across the area (per DDC and AMA 12Z soundings this morning).
    The best chance for an organized severe wind threat would be if a
    cluster of storms organized and rode near/along the boundary in
    southern Kansas. At this time, the severe threat is expected to
    remain rather isolated, so a watch appears unlikely.

    ..Jirak/Grams.. 09/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r3KGzT2FDx4WceH7RJzMOx0jjkcQF3mdhDOuV6x02-1KXKk_ePca2R7_xSB1G7y1q4_kY8tp$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35580083 35760017 36149965 36529889 36789800 37069736
    37549722 37899741 37889881 37839961 37640042 37450096
    37060143 36530173 36040236 35660203 35580083=20



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