• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1690

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 3 19:21:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031921
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031920=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-032015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1690
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Fri Sep 03 2021

    Areas affected...southeast WY...northeast CO...western NE Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031920Z - 032015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible this
    afternoon with a risk for large hail and strong/damaging gusts. The
    severe risk is expected to remain isolated in coverage, and a watch
    is not currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms have developed
    across eastern WY as of 1915z, aided by ascent associated with a
    departing upper-level trough. Clouds have only recently begun to
    clear over much of this area, and the delayed onset of stronger
    diurnal heating has resulted in only weak instability (MLCAPE on the
    order of 500 J/kg). Farther south, a few storms have developed over
    the higher terrain of north-central and central CO. As the
    afternoon progresses, some additional destabilization is expected
    across the discussion area given heating in the presence of upper
    50s/lower 60s surface dew points with MLCAPE locally approaching
    1000 J/kg. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts coupled with
    low-level southeast flow will result in sufficient shear for storm organization, and isolated supercells will be possible this
    afternoon posing a risk for large hail and strong/possibly damaging
    gusts. A couple of clusters of storms may ultimately evolve by late
    afternoon or early evening, with a continued severe risk as storms
    move east across the adjacent plains.=20=20

    The overall severe risk is expected to remain isolated, and a watch
    is not currently expected.

    ..Bunting/Grams.. 09/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!skHnrrehG85xmg4UdPkez_NsIJNnO2XsQAHQkzAT7PLdY3ktRfxVov4nJvuUdZ5_XkNVj8jj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42750538 43280468 42920393 42270348 41000317 40130316
    39650320 39260327 39090356 39090428 39310470 41130492
    42310543 42750538=20



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