Mesoscale Discussion 1687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021
Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 487...
Valid 030015Z - 030145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 487 continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain
possible over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms have developed over the past few
hours, with a couple of damaging gusts noted with cellular mergers.
These storms are progressing in a relatively pristine environment
characterized by up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, storms have
struggled to sustain steady state behavior in structure or
intensity, with recent severe potential mainly being confined to
storms progressing from Dickinson into Morris County, KS. Current
thinking is that storms will continue to fluctuate in intensity,
supporting occasional damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado,
especially farther north, where greater deep-layer ascent and low-level/deep-layer shear are present. The severe threat may
persist for at least a couple hours after dark given a modest
expected increase in the nocturnal low-level jet.
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