• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1687

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 3 00:16:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 030016
    SPC MCD 030015=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1687
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0715 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 487...

    Valid 030015Z - 030145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 487 continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain
    possible over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms have developed over the past few
    hours, with a couple of damaging gusts noted with cellular mergers.
    These storms are progressing in a relatively pristine environment
    characterized by up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, storms have
    struggled to sustain steady state behavior in structure or
    intensity, with recent severe potential mainly being confined to
    storms progressing from Dickinson into Morris County, KS. Current
    thinking is that storms will continue to fluctuate in intensity,
    supporting occasional damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado,
    especially farther north, where greater deep-layer ascent and low-level/deep-layer shear are present. The severe threat may
    persist for at least a couple hours after dark given a modest
    expected increase in the nocturnal low-level jet.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sRXe1ZoI6XARkAfI57Z4GdLRiYb0xBtMEE67mhAD8v7sty_Zr3SS3NtmIG6HBD40S8nHKb5e$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38299855 39259752 39839687 39889614 39629557 39129538
    38649569 38359610 38129712 38299855=20

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