• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1684

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 2 20:41:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022041=20
    UTZ000-IDZ000-022315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1684
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022041Z - 022315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this
    afternoon and early evening across northern Utah, posing a threat
    for damaging winds. The limited coverage of severe thunderstorms
    will likely preclude the necessity of a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating in the presence of anomalous low-level
    moisture (exceeding 90th percentile values for this date) has
    resulted in modest destabilization across the area, characterized by
    MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg per mesoanalysis. Recent VWPs from
    Salt Lake City (MTX) indicate increasing west-southwesterly flow
    aloft (~30 knots at 2-km AGL) as the positively tilted trough
    approaches from the west. Consequently, a favored corridor with
    overlapping instability and shear is developing across northern
    Utah.=20=20

    The lack of forcing will likely limit thunderstorm coverage and
    severe potential; nevertheless, thunderstorms are trying to develop
    in the drier air over the higher terrain of far eastern Nevada and
    far western Utah. As these storms move into a more favorable
    thermodynamic environment (including DCAPE over 1200 J/kg) to the
    east, they should intensify and organize, posing a threat for
    isolated damaging winds.

    ..Jirak/Grams.. 09/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qTeZhqRBlfw-XaAbvTLHYn-0fS2GPubbyHjnz-9jhuSIB94Tjv3kpWBYpOjLWg7CaT54p-8E$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...

    LAT...LON 40331403 40831402 41241380 41691312 42021236 41761176
    41291153 40771150 40551162 40401171 40081227 39871289
    39841347 40331403=20



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