• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1683

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 2 19:12:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021912
    SPC MCD 021911=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1683
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 021911Z - 022115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms in the Salina Kansas area may
    persist for a few hours into northeast Kansas. Wind, hail, and
    perhaps a tornado threat are all possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms on the southern fringe of a larger-scale
    precipitation shield from NE into northern KS have increased in
    intensity as a hotter air mass develops to the south. Surface
    analysis shows temperatures into the 90s F across south-central KS,
    which has eroded capping. Downstream of these cells, temperatures
    are quite a bit cooler, only in the lower 80s around Topeka,
    although a warming trend is expected. Cirrus is currently hampering
    heating across northeast KS as well.

    Given the robustness of the current cell, a severe hail or wind
    threat may persist in a narrow zone across several counties over the
    next few hours. In addition, shear profiles are favorable for
    supercells, and 0-1 SRH will remain over 100 m2/s2 which could also
    favor a tornado risk assuming cells remain discrete.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 09/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sINc2tm_6I6zTCsEoVjzuFqeHG2EECVrQL_v7B4iFlap3rhIJE7HD1UAfxol-NZhDbk0_nE5$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39069798 39539626 39449589 39169571 38949577 38839609
    38799716 38739789 38809799 38919802 39069798=20

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