• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1682

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 2 18:28:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021828
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021828=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-022030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1682
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021

    Areas affected...much of central Nebraska into northern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 021828Z - 022030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity, possibly
    becoming severe by 21Z near a surface trough from central Nebraska
    into northwest Kansas. A few supercells will be possible, with a
    brief tornado or two.

    DISCUSSION...An area of rain and thunderstorms is expected to shift
    east out of central NE and KS, with heating and destabilization
    expected westward toward the surface trough. Convergence along this
    trough is currently supporting a low-topped line of convection
    across northern NE, but temperatures are currently cool extending
    east of this activity.

    Visible satellite imagery shows clearing across southwest NE into
    western KS, and this will likely support initiation near the surface
    trough after about 20-21Z. While surface winds are weak near the
    trough, strong boundary-layer flow will persist to the east, along
    with 30-40 kt 850 mb winds. Therefore, assuming air mass recovery
    late this afternoon, sufficient SRH will support a supercell threat
    with cells that form near the trough and proceed east. Objective
    analysis currently indicates 0-1 km values over 200 m2/s2. A couple
    tornadoes will be possible in a narrow zone where the surface warm
    nose and SRH gradient interface. Otherwise, a few severe gusts or
    low-end severe hail will be possible.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 09/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vtO9dpELYbjB2GCdOaf_MDWqPvrUYibjkxQOTl5vxLM4DZP5XGzAg1Fd3a8Z_VEe4wlnrwoc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39709889 39169964 39220045 39610082 40050101 40670089
    41470041 42479993 42729982 42899934 42839892 42619865
    42019853 40949865 39709889=20



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