Mesoscale Discussion 1681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021
Areas affected...Southeast New England coast
Concerning...Tornado Watch 486...
Valid 020738Z - 020915Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 486 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado and isolated damaging gusts will
persist along the southeast New England coast until the remnants of
Ida move offshore by about 11z.
DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells moved into southeast MA and became
elevated north of the surface warm front. This boundary has moved a
little northward in the past hour, with Martha's Vineyard and
Nantucket both in the surface warm sector as of 07z. Some slight
additional northward movement of the warm front is possible into
extreme southeast MA as the increasingly baroclinic remnants of Ida
move east-northeastward along the baroclinic zone aligned along the
southern New England coast. Vertical shear remains favorable for
supercells with large hodographs and effective SRH at or above 300
m2/s2. Where surface temperatures can warm into the low-mid 70s
with low 70s dewpoints, there will be sufficient surface-based
buoyancy to maintain the threat for a tornado or two and damaging
gusts. These threats will persist within the the primary convective
band until it moves across the southeast MA coast by about 11z.
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