• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1679

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 2 03:20:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 020320
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020320=20
    MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-020445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1679
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1020 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...far northern New Jersey...southern New York...Long Island...and far southern New England

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 484...

    Valid 020320Z - 020445Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 484 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently moving across Long Island and
    southern New England will continue to pose a risk of strong
    thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes. A new watch downstream
    of Tornado Watch #484 will be issued.

    DISCUSSION...The remnant low-level circulation of post-tropical
    cyclone Ida continues to move northeast toward the greater New York
    City area. The low-level wind field continues to advect a very warm,
    moist air northward into southern New England as a warm front slowly
    lifts north across Long Island. Time-evolution VAD winds from Upton,
    NY, (KOKX) suggests that the warm front is very near or just north
    of the radar. Additionally, the time evolution of KOKX's VAD winds
    indicates a strengthening wind field that veers with height, leading
    to 0-1 kilometer SRH in excess of 800 m2/s2.=20

    As thunderstorms continue to move east from northern New
    Jersey/southern New York, across Long Island and southern New
    England, they will interact with this extremely favorable kinematic environment. The result is a continued potential for a couple of
    tornadoes and strong thunderstorm winds along and south of the warm
    front. The most appreciable tornado risk will be in the vicinity of
    this lifting warm front, but how far north it lifts before being
    overtaken by the approaching thunderstorms is uncertain. Portions o
    coastal and near-coastal areas downstream from Tornado Watch #484
    across southern New England will need a new tornado watch.

    ..Marsh.. 09/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!raw0WyJgVoZT8Yz3XdfPcpNF3qm2qaJdgw93VSrGbCr9WyP8Bd4YHzQ_2z5H1v2vHcoAYSWE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

    LAT...LON 41317391 42217009 41846950 41126950 40277345 40407386
    40837405 41317391=20



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