• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1678

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 2 02:20:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 020220
    SPC MCD 020220=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1678
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0920 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...western Nebraska and portions of southwest South

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...

    Valid 020220Z - 020345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage across
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch #485. The overall environment will support
    a hail and wind threat through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southern
    portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #485, over portions of the
    Nebraska Panhandle. Radar trends with these thunderstorms indicate
    updrafts associated with these thunderstorms remain rather
    pulse-like with episodic increases in the MRMS MESH flirting with
    severe criteria at times, but otherwise generally remaining below
    severe levels. This may be explained by by the strength of the
    warm-air advection on the nose of the low-level jet. The continued
    isentropic ascent is resulting in numerous thunderstorms that are
    likely destructively interfering with one another causing individual
    updrafts to struggle to maintain their initial intensity.

    Despite current struggles for updrafts to maintain their initial
    intensity, the overall background environment will remain supportive
    of at least episodic severe potential given most-unstable CAPE
    values between 1500-2000 J/kg and effective-layer shear greater than
    35 knots. This is more than sufficient to pose a hail and wind
    threat into the evening hours.

    ..Marsh.. 09/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tRHVus-EAIRnDDUmeA1DwJBAi9tYV34tEmur95Jzw_NdfD0C24VxlWNm8eY2E2JWDkAWXIoV$=
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    LAT...LON 41720403 43010401 43020299 43600297 43680276 43680202
    44510194 44730113 44180116 44179988 44059935 43839928
    43679942 43519925 43489950 43019951 42970021 42100024
    42060203 41760208 41730196 41410196 41410203 41240209
    41220260 41420263 41430335 41670336 41720403=20

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