Mesoscale Discussion 1678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021
Areas affected...western Nebraska and portions of southwest South
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...
Valid 020220Z - 020345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #485. The overall environment will support
a hail and wind threat through the evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southern
portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #485, over portions of the
Nebraska Panhandle. Radar trends with these thunderstorms indicate
updrafts associated with these thunderstorms remain rather
pulse-like with episodic increases in the MRMS MESH flirting with
severe criteria at times, but otherwise generally remaining below
severe levels. This may be explained by by the strength of the
warm-air advection on the nose of the low-level jet. The continued
isentropic ascent is resulting in numerous thunderstorms that are
likely destructively interfering with one another causing individual
updrafts to struggle to maintain their initial intensity.
Despite current struggles for updrafts to maintain their initial
intensity, the overall background environment will remain supportive
of at least episodic severe potential given most-unstable CAPE
values between 1500-2000 J/kg and effective-layer shear greater than
35 knots. This is more than sufficient to pose a hail and wind
threat into the evening hours.
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