• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1677

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 2 00:33:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 020033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020032=20
    NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-020200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1677
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0732 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...Northern New Jersey...far southern New York and
    Long Island

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 484...

    Valid 020032Z - 020200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 484 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat across far southern New York and Long
    Island will increase as the warm sector moves northward in the next
    couple of hours. Storm mode may moderate the the tornado threat, but discrete/embedded supercells remain possible and would pose the
    greatest risk.

    DISCUSSION...Convection across far eastern Pennsylvania and central
    New Jersey has generally congealed. While the potential for
    tornadoes remains due to the low-level shear environment, the storm
    mode suggests that tornadoes would generally be brief.

    Some backing of surface winds is evident in surface observations in
    eastern Long Island. Over the next couple of hours, this trend
    should continue as low-level warm advection increases. Portions of
    far southern New York and Long Island should eventually end up in
    the warm sector. Improved thermodynamics will lead to a slightly
    higher tornado potential, though this will continue to be modulated
    by linear/cluster storm mode. KDIX radar imagery does show a couple
    of more discrete storms moving northeast out of central New Jersey.
    These storms, and other discrete storms that can develop, would pose
    a greater tornado threat.

    ..Wendt.. 09/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qeblU4ADggSHZufuVq2ztjIaS107CQQfHLiljeymndbsuZK83gdu31H7EU7hfCKPde8ObH7n$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

    LAT...LON 40547466 40937416 41127297 41207210 40977168 40447273
    40207411 40147439 40307457 40547466=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 2 00:38:03 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1630543088-90326-352
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    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 020037
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020037 COR
    NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-020200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1677
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0737 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...Northern New Jersey...far southern New York and
    Long Island

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 484...

    Valid 020037Z - 020200Z

    CORRECTED FOR LOCATION REFERENCE

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 484 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat across far southern New York and Long
    Island will increase as the warm sector moves northward in the next
    couple of hours. Storm mode may moderate the the tornado threat, but discrete/embedded supercells remain possible and would pose the
    greatest risk.

    DISCUSSION...Convection across far eastern Pennsylvania and central
    New Jersey has generally congealed. While the potential for
    tornadoes remains due to the low-level shear environment, the storm
    mode suggests that tornadoes would generally be brief.

    Some backing of surface winds is evident in surface observations in
    western Long Island. Over the next couple of hours, this trend
    should continue as low-level warm advection increases. Portions of
    far southern New York and Long Island should eventually end up in
    the warm sector. Improved thermodynamics will lead to a slightly
    higher tornado potential, though this will continue to be modulated
    by linear/cluster storm mode. KDIX radar imagery does show a couple
    of more discrete storms moving northeast out of central New Jersey.
    These storms, and other discrete storms that can develop, would pose
    a greater tornado threat.

    ..Wendt.. 09/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sl51VScoEwCCcaj-ynWeh6r2U6ctnM5j-3ujaLY_54PBgYQJ1RMKnj1P91LFH9FgjaxUTTGu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

    LAT...LON 40547466 40937416 41127297 41207210 40977168 40447273
    40207411 40147439 40307457 40547466=20



    ------------=_1630543088-90326-352
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    = = =
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