• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1673

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 1 20:28:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 012028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012028=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-012230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1673
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Pennsylvania...Delaware...New
    Jersey...Long Island

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 483...

    Valid 012028Z - 012230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 483 continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and spread
    east/northeast across New Jersey and eventually Long Island.
    Damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible. An additional
    watch could be needed later today.

    DISCUSSION...A large mass of storms currently exists just north of a
    warm front over southeast PA, with an additional cluster moving
    northeastward out of MD and northern DE. The warm front currently
    extends east across central NJ, and has been moving north at around
    8 kt.=20

    The conglomeration of storms over southeast PA will likely spread
    east along and north of the warm front, with damaging gusts
    possible. Shear will remain favorable for periodic supercells or a
    brief tornado near this boundary which is likely to affect Long
    Island later this evening.

    Storm mode trends currently suggest that wind may become the primary
    risk, especially if the storms remain north of the front. However,
    any cells that may develop along the front itself could possibly
    produce a brief tornado as low-level SRH remains favorable.

    ..Jewell.. 09/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tzumnDtp3bXwHWU4OZk3Nrifd1efs1JgG0rnot2imBL980ymlk58Yo2bp9XPgx9M3J7fFNek$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39767376 39337553 39467588 39637593 39877575 40027545
    40237520 40457495 40727449 41057304 40947278 40717271
    40557275 40287287 39767376=20



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