• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1672

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 1 19:36:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011936
    SPC MCD 011935=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1672
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0235 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011935Z - 012130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorms may pose a risk for a
    few strong wind gusts/downbursts this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
    of thunderstorms across central Alabama moving south-southeastward
    at around 25 kt. Ongoing within a weakly forced but warm, moist, and
    unstable environment (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) these storms are
    forecast to continue to move southeastward across portions of
    central and southern Alabama this afternoon. Model soundings and
    regional VADs show little deep-layer shear owing to weak
    northwesterly flow aloft less that 20 kt. This suggest any
    convective organization will be limited and tied to the strength of
    the southeastward propagating cold pool. DCAPE values around
    1200-1400 J/kg may support a few stronger downdrafts capable of
    isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening before the
    cluster weakens with the loss of diurnal heating. Given the limited
    threat for organized severe weather a watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 09/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qo8xpyVQryrlEG42cBSBwdFQKsOhK1iHKW5l-5OMAw9d02_EafSkSQQ38O42BuBVCJ_Aohtv$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33388740 33708696 33708668 33248599 33058557 32718525
    32408510 32268509 31748541 31468573 31268665 31628688
    32058721 32828785 33208796 33388740=20

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